I made a tool to provide optimal World Cup match predictions to beat all your colleagues in the World Cup pool. Based on betting odds, this tool maximizes the total expected points scored using the German Kicktipp Platform. For more details, see below!
Last updated: Mon 03 Aug 2026, 17:51 CEST · refreshes once a day during the tournament.
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How this works
For each match I take Bet365's correct-score odds — the price on every individual scoreline (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, … up to around 7-4) — and strip out the bookmaker's margin to recover the implied probability of each scoreline.
I then score every candidate prediction against that full distribution under the Kicktipp rules and report the three scores with the highest expected points. The table's top row (in green) is the expected-points-maximising tip — not necessarily the single most likely score.
Formally, the tool picks the scoreline that maximises expected points:
- prediction — a scoreline you could enter as your tip (home : away).
- score — a possible actual final result; the sum runs over every scoreline.
- P(score) — the probability the match ends in exactly that score, from Bet365's correct-score odds.
- Points(prediction, score) — the Kicktipp points that tip earns for that result (4 / 3 / 2 / 0, by the rule below).
- The inner sum is a tip's expected points; arg max keeps the tip with the most — the green top row.
Kicktipp scoring: 4 = exact score · 3 = correct goal difference (non-draw) · 2 = correct tendency (win/draw/loss) · 0 = otherwise. Because a draw tip only pays when the match is actually drawn, narrow favourites usually win on expected points even when a draw is fairly likely.
Odds: Bet365 correct-score market via odds-api.io. For fun, not betting advice.