World Cup Kicktipp Predictor

Last updated: Mon 22 Jun 2026, 01:22 CEST · refreshes once a day during the tournament.

Uruguay vs Cape Verde Today Mon 22 Jun, 00:00

Market: 1 87% · X 11% · 2 2% | expected goals 3.73 : 0.92

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	3:0	2.00
2	3:1	1.99
3	4:1	1.99

New Zealand vs Egypt Today Mon 22 Jun, 03:00

Market: 1 16% · X 24% · 2 60% | expected goals 0.79 : 1.76

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	0:1	1.60
2	1:2	1.56
3	0:2	1.52

Argentina vs Austria Today Mon 22 Jun, 19:00

Market: 1 63% · X 23% · 2 14% | expected goals 1.87 : 0.79

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	1:0	1.65
2	2:1	1.61
3	2:0	1.58

France vs Iraq Today Mon 22 Jun, 23:00

Market: 1 89% · X 8% · 2 3% | expected goals 3.21 : 0.49

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	2:0	2.11
2	3:0	2.11
3	3:1	2.05

Norway vs Senegal Tomorrow Tue 23 Jun, 02:00

Market: 1 42% · X 27% · 2 31% | expected goals 1.46 : 1.22

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	1:0	1.18
2	2:1	1.17
3	3:2	1.10

Jordan vs Algeria Tomorrow Tue 23 Jun, 05:00

Market: 1 16% · X 23% · 2 61% | expected goals 0.83 : 1.83

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	0:1	1.61
2	1:2	1.57
3	0:2	1.53

Portugal vs Uzbekistan Tomorrow Tue 23 Jun, 19:00

Market: 1 80% · X 14% · 2 6% | expected goals 2.51 : 0.56

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	2:0	1.97
2	1:0	1.94
3	2:1	1.90

England vs Ghana Tomorrow Tue 23 Jun, 22:00

Market: 1 78% · X 15% · 2 7% | expected goals 2.41 : 0.56

#	Score	Exp. pts
1	2:0	1.94
2	1:0	1.92
3	2:1	1.88

How this works

For each match I pull the bookmakers' match-winner (1·X·2) and over/under odds, strip out the margin to recover the implied probabilities, and fit an independent Poisson model for each team's goals (the expected goals shown above). That yields a probability for every possible scoreline.

I then score every candidate prediction against that full distribution under the Kicktipp rules and report the three scores with the highest expected points. The table's top row (in green) is the expected-points-maximising tip — not necessarily the single most likely score.

Kicktipp scoring: 4 = exact score · 3 = correct goal difference (non-draw) · 2 = correct tendency (win/draw/loss) · 0 = otherwise. Because a draw tip only pays when the match is actually drawn, narrow favourites usually win on expected points even when a draw is fairly likely.

Odds via The Odds API. For fun, not betting advice.